Transportation Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty: The Palestinian Case

The current transport system, in the Palestinian territories which is an important component of the economy affecting the development and the welfare of populations was severely affected by the Israeli occupation measures. Strategic planning is a key tool to prepare for the establishment of the Palestinian state and to achieve the anticipated development. However, due to the high uncertainty in the Palestinian case, the process of the strategic planning in the various disciplines, in general, and in the transport sector at specific, is not an easy and direct exercise. The aim of this study, which is conducted on the transportation sector in Palestine is to explore prospective planning methods capable of dealing uncertainty while preparing an overall framework for transport strategic planning. This study derives its significance from the importance of the transport sector and the concept of strategic planning. It concentrates in particular on developing a potential framework for strategic planning in the transport sector under the conditions of high uncertainty. A SWOT analysis (Strength9+s, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) is conducted to form the basis for defining the strategic goals, objectives and strategies. In order to identify the proper outline strategies, four scenarios are developed taking into account the potential and expected future political and socio-economic conditions. Four different aspects of uncertainties were analyzed through each scenario, including them political, economic, demographic and institutional aspects. These four uncertainties for each scenario vary in level from low to medium to high level. A set of robust strategies that can respond to each scenario are then developed in order to succeed in the current uncertain environment. The strategies are based on possible changes in the four different aspects (uncertainties) in each scenario. It is noticed that there are some strategies that are common between the four different scenarios, while there are special strategies that apply for some scenarios only. However, Developing the outline strategies for each of the four planned scenarios don’t mean that we are accepting all these scenarios, since the Palestinians preferred option is the second (optimistic) scenario. Developing these scenarios and these strategies was made to know how to deal with uncertainty related to these scenarios, and in order to maintain and restore the transport sector under these scenarios. The output of this study would be of great importance to the related official institutions in order to adopt and to build on. Basically this study will provide a new approach to the planning and development of the transport sector in Palestine. It can be the basis for the required development in the transport sector, and also it could be a strong foundation for developing a Master Transportation Plan that will guide potential development of the transportation sector in Palestine, capacity building, programming, funding, legal, managerial and technical mechanisms needed to support the institutional structure within the sector.