Developing Trip Generation Models Utilizing Linear Regression Analysis : Jericho City as a Case Study:

The aim of this research is to develop trip generation models to predict the number of trips generated by households in the Palestinian areas considering Jericho City as the case study. The models are developed using multiple linear regression analysis, which establishes relationship between the number of trips generated by households and some socioeconomic attributes. The developed models include three types of models. The first model is a general trip generation model (i.e., a general model regardless of trip purpose and trip time). The second one includes trip generation models by trip purpose. These models include the work trip generation model, the education trip generation model, the shopping trip generation model, the social trip generation model, and the recreational trip generation model. Finally, five trip generation models by trip time are developed. The data consists of primary data, which was collected by conducting a household survey. The survey consists of 713 randomly selected households from Jericho City, the study area. The results indicated that the estimated general trip generation model has a good explanatory power. The R-square for this model is 0.69, indicating that the explanatory variables included in the model explain 69% of the dependent variable. The variables that mostly affect trip generation are found to be the number of persons receiving education in the household, the number of employed persons in the household, as well as the household monthly income. The work trip generation model has R-square value of 0.74. In this model, the number of employed persons in the household and the number of persons with age between 31 to 50 years are the variables that mostly affect work trips. The educational trip generation model has R-square value of 0.97. The number of persons who are receiving education in the household is the main factor in this model. The shopping trip generation model depends on the number of persons in the household and the monthly household income. The social trip generation model depends mainly on the number of females in the household and the number of employed persons in the household. Finally, the recreational trip generation model depends mainly on the number of persons receiving education in the household, number of persons between 51 and 64 years old, and the monthly household income.